Entries in Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics (7)
I'mma Take a Crap on the Balanced Budget Amendment
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This week in the continuing saga of the debt ceiling, the House will be voting on a Republican proposal to make raising the debt ceiling contingent on the passage of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. This measure is expected to pass the House where it will be dead on arrival in the Senate. That’s a good thing because, although a balanced budget amendment is a good talking point, it’s horrible policy - particularly the specific one under consideration.
The Debt Ceiling: It's Not About the Deficit
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News organizations tend to report on the debt ceiling negotiations as if reducing the deficit is the main concern for both parties. Unfortunately that is not really the case. I say unfortunately because if Democrats and Republicans had the same overall goal, it would be much easier to get a deal done (and as previously discussed, a deal to raise the debt ceiling is absolutely necessary).
If reducing the deficit as much as possible was the goal of both parties, a deal could be struck in which spending cuts that Republicans covet would be traded for revenue raisers (tax increases, elimination of tax breaks, etc) that Democrats desire. The resulting deal would reduce the deficit by a certain amount and both sides would declare victory. This is the type of deal Reagan and Clinton enacted to reduce the deficit and it’s similar to what I expected to happen in this case.
Follow Ups, Round Ups and Mrs. Brady had Crabs
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Instead of taking on a new topic this week, I’m going to post a few quick follow up items to two of my last posts as well as a couple links to articles I found interesting or noteworthy.
Follow up items:
- In last week’s post on contradictions in the debt ceiling negotiations, I stated that the negotiations were progressing better than they might appear and that it was likely Republicans would eventually agree to increased taxes via the elimination of tax breaks. Then, on Thursday, Congressional Republicans pulled out of the debt ceiling negotiations over the issue of taxes.
Whoops! It is now likely that President Obama will have to hammer out a deal directly with Speaker Boehner. While it is still possible that the final deal will include the elimination of tax breaks, I’m less confident than I was last week. This is due to the fact that Republicans have hardened their rhetoric around tax cuts and Democrats have seemed increasingly focused on getting additional economic stimulus (in the form of an employer payroll tax cut) into the final deal.
Contradictions in the Debt Ceiling Negotiations
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If you are following the debt ceiling talks (and really, who isn’t?) you might get the impression that things are at a complete stalemate. Republican leaders continue to insist that entitlement cuts are necessary for a deal to be made and Democratic leaders are equally insistent that they will not agree to significant Social Security or Medicare cuts. Similarly, Democratic leaders believe that tax revenue increases must be part of any deal but Republicans argue they will not agree to any tax increases. Despite these seemingly contradictory stances, word from DC is that these talks are proceeding nicely and a final deal is slowly taking shape. How is this possible?
Surveying the Republican Field
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Although tonight’s debate in New Hampshire among the candidates for the Republican presidential nomination is not the first of this cycle, it is the first to include current frontrunner Mitt Romney. It is also the first debate since prospective candidates Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels announced they weren’t running. This seems like as good a time as any to share a few thoughts on the current crop of candidates.
US Representative Michele Bachmann – A three term representative from Minnesota, Michele Bachmann is a favorite of the Tea Party. She has the potential to appeal to conservative Republican voters due to her votes against TARP, socially conservative views (particularly on abortion), and tendency towards provocative, outspoken remarks. Bachmann has been compared to Sarah Palin, but she’s much more disciplined and serious about running for President. She has hired an experienced campaign manager and seems set to run a fairly traditional campaign, albeit with a less than traditional candidate. Although it is extremely unlikely to happen, I consider Bachmann to be the only fringe candidate with a shot at parlaying an Iowa Caucus win into the Republican Presidential nomination. In my opinion, the biggest thing standing in her way is that she is basically unelectable in a general election and I don’t think the Republicans will nominate an unelectable candidate.
Talking with Myself – A Debt Ceiling Primer
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What is the debt ceiling?
The debt ceiling is the legal limit on how much the US government is allowed to borrow.
Why does it exist?
The debt ceiling was originally created to make life easier for congress, not harder. Up until WWI, when the US government needed to borrow money, congress would debate and approve the terms of sale for treasury bonds themselves. During WWI, this proved to be too time-consuming so congress delegated these activities to the Treasury Department.
Not wanting to cede too much power, congress also voted to set a limit on how much the Treasury Department could borrow.
What doesn’t the debt ceiling do?
The debt ceiling itself does not set spending or revenue levels. That is done through the budget process.
But doesn’t spending and revenue levels dictate how much the US government has to borrow?
Therein lies the problem with the debt ceiling. Congress knows how much debt will be incurred when they pass the annual budget. If they didn’t want the Treasury Department to borrow more funds, they would pass a budget that didn’t require the Treasury Department to do so.
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
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George W. Bush: Much Better in Retrospect
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Begrudgingly Respect
a Select Few Things About GWB
OK, let’s get something straight: I am no fan of George W. Bush. I voted against him twice, I worked to defeat him in 2004, and I think he can legitimately be blamed, at least in part, for many of our nation’s current woes. That he used gay marriage as a wedge issue to help increase conservative voter turnout in 2004 was hateful and unforgiveable.
But the story of why most Americans (and especially progressives) dislike GWB has already been written many times over. And while I don’t think it should be forgotten, I’m here to embark on a different endeavor: to discuss the aspects of GWB’s presidency that are somewhat under-appreciated by the left.
Once again, this series of blog posts is not meant to change any minds about the Bush Presidency overall. I do hope it provides a little perspective, especially when comparing the policies of GWB with those of the current Republican Party. So, without further ado, let’s get started…