Although tonight’s debate in New Hampshire among the candidates for the Republican presidential nomination is not the first of this cycle, it is the first to include current frontrunner Mitt Romney. It is also the first debate since prospective candidates Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels announced they weren’t running. This seems like as good a time as any to share a few thoughts on the current crop of candidates.

US Representative Michele Bachmann – A three term representative from Minnesota, Michele Bachmann is a favorite of the Tea Party. She has the potential to appeal to conservative Republican voters due to her votes against TARP, socially conservative views (particularly on abortion), and tendency towards provocative, outspoken remarks. Bachmann has been compared to Sarah Palin, but she’s much more disciplined and serious about running for President. She has hired an experienced campaign manager and seems set to run a fairly traditional campaign, albeit with a less than traditional candidate. Although it is extremely unlikely to happen, I consider Bachmann to be the only fringe candidate with a shot at parlaying an Iowa Caucus win into the Republican Presidential nomination. In my opinion, the biggest thing standing in her way is that she is basically unelectable in a general election and I don’t think the Republicans will nominate an unelectable candidate.

Businessman Herman Cain – The former chairman and CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, a chain of casual Italian restaurants, Herman Cain has never held political office. The closest he’s come is finishing second in the Georgia Republican senate primary in 2004. I have no idea how someone with that resume could be taken seriously as a presidential candidate, but Mr. Cain has made some noise on the campaign trail and was tied for second place in the most recent Public Policy Polling poll of Iowa Republicans. Unlike Mrs. Bachmann, even if Mr. Cain were to somehow win the Iowa Caucuses there is zero chance he could win the nomination.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich – Wait, Newt is actually going to show up at this debate? That means he must be back from his cruise. Good for him! To bad all his senior campaign aides quite while he was gone. In other news, he’s toast and will be exiting this contest shortly.

US Representative Ron Paul – A perennial presidential candidate and US representative from Texas, Ron Paul is part of the libertarian wing of the Republican party. Dr. Paul has had a small but fervent national following and has proved that he can raise significant campaign funds. For years Dr. Paul’s extreme libertarian positions (supporting both lower spending and taxes as well as opposing the war in Iraq) have put him at odds with most Republican voters, however, after the backlash against TARP, his anti-Federal Reserve stances have become in vogue. Dr. Paul may be able to siphon some votes from other candidates but he is not a threat to win any states let alone the nomination.

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty – The former two term governor of Minnesota is the first candidate I’m discussing that has a chance to win both the Republican nomination and the general election. Pawlenty holds fairly traditional conservative Republican views, although he will be attacked for his economic record (he raised some taxes and accepted stimulus funds) and his former support of Cap and Trade. He also has ties to the Evangelical community due to his conversion from Catholicism, which could aid him in certain primary states. Although both his gubernatorial wins were accomplished with less than 50% of the vote and the aid of a third party candidate, winning twice in a blue state shows that Pawlenty has significant campaign experience.

Pawlenty is not a particularly compelling or interesting candidate, but if he were to win the Iowa Caucuses he could easily win the nomination and, if conditions are right, go on to win the presidency.

Former Governor Mitt Romney – Finally, we get to the big dog: former one term Governor of Massachusetts and nominal front runner Mitt Romney. Historically, Romney would seem to be in a good position. Although he’s a bit of a square...

But he can raise tons of money, has campaign experience and name recognition from his last presidential run, and most of his knowledge and expertise is business related which fits with the current political cycle. Romney is also widely considered to be the strongest general election candidate of the Republicans currently running, something I agree with. Yet Romney has two big vulnerabilities. The first is a rightly deserved reputation for flip-flopping due to his shifting positions on social issues such as gay rights and abortion. The second, more troublesome, vulnerability is that the healthcare bill he signed into law in Massachusetts is very similar to Obama’s healthcare law. Against a stronger field, this would probably be a fatal flaw, but Romney benefits from the fact that there are several weak candidates who, even if they win Iowa, would probably still lose as long as Romney wins New Hampshire and Nevada. My money is on Romney winning the Republican nomination, but then again I thought he would win in 2008 and was wrong.

Former Senator Rick Santorum – The former Senator from Pennsylvania is known for his extreme socially conservative views as well as a unique political vulnerability thanks to Dan Savage. Seriously, I think we should all take the time to google Rick Santorum and then thank Dan Savage for the result. I really can’t envision Rick Santorum gaining enough of a following to win any states and he certainly won’t win the nomination.

So these are the announced Republican candidates for President. It is an exceptionally weak field with only two electable candidates, neither of whom generates much enthusiasm within their own party. There is talk of former Utah governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman running, but he’s too moderate to win the nomination (and serving in the Obama Administration isn’t going to help either). Supposedly Texas governor Rick Perry is also considering a run. I would take him more seriously because there aren’t any other southerners running which could give him a huge advantage in South Carolina and other southern states. I don’t know enough about him to say whether or not he would be a strong general election candidate but I suspect that he is at least electable. And if the current economic climate continues into 2012, an electable candidate may be all the Republicans need to win the White House.

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Keith Doughty is a non-profit finance professional who in his spare time dabbles in music, politics, and interesting food. He lives and works in Philadelphia, PA.

Contact him at neuroticmonkey.com